This week's economic update

The 30- year mortgage rate slightly rose this week to 3.56 % from 3.53% last week, still at the highest since September. Last year this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.95%.  The 15-year rate stayed the same this week at 2.77%.  A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averages 3.19%.  The 5-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.64 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, the same as last week. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.80 percent. The 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.65 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.61 percent.  At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.73 percent.  These low rates are continuing to help the housing market, while mortgage delinquencies are decreasing and home prices are steadily rising as demand surges. 

     

Thursday’s  agreement on the mortgage settlement reported Banks have provided $45.8 billion in aid under the mortgage settlement plan. This relief was a part of the settlement from about a year ago by 49 state attorneys general, several federal agencies and big banks. The settlement resolved investigations into allegations the financial institutions had used faulty paperwork and other unethical practices to foreclose on homes.  Most of the aid to consumers have received have been through short sales not loan modifications, especially in CA.  According to California reports, about 175,000 consumers have received a total of $20.6 billion in principal reductions, short-sale relief and  only a very small  percentage received loan modifications.

Prices, obviously, are rising faster than anyone would have expected. I don't see any end in sight. Buyers who are on the fence may soon find they may have to pay much more for a similar home! 

Major economic news this week

Today the global stock market climbed to the highest in two years, aided by an increase in manufacturing and new employment data which indicates the global economic recovery is on track.  This week Dow rose above 14,000 for the first time since October 2007.  Employment data was released today and showed what was expected-- steady but slow growth for January with 157,000 added jobs, 196,000 in December and 247,000 in November.   Job creation is steady and strong enough to bring the unemployment rate down over time — just not very quickly.  The January unemployment report was, more than anything, affirmation of that fact.

While the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 7.9%, there are still solid gains in construction and retail employment.  The construction industry added 28,000 jobs, following a 30,000 gain in December, which is suggesting that more homes are being built and employers are increasing their construction crews.  The retail sector added 33,000 jobs and actually did pull back on hiring in anticipation of the increase in the payroll tax.

The steady growth in jobs figures explain a lot.  They explain why consumer spending and retail sales held up quite well during 2012, in spite of the seemingly weak jobs numbers.  They help explain why consumers in general did a far better job keeping up with financial obligations—from mortgages to credit cards.  They help explain why more people were willing to take a plunge on purchasing a home or buying a new car.  Buyers are starting to feel more confident, home values continue to steadily rise and there is more optimism about the economic recovery.  In end, the financial situation of 2013 is rather bright especially in consideration of the fiscal cliff deal.  But the new tax increases for 2013 that was worked into the fiscal cliff deal could still affect retail sales and other measures of economic performance in coming months.  

What does this mean to the housing market?  Very low inventory.   Prices rising quickly and multiple offers.  This was a very unusual real estate recession.  Caused by a sudden crisis in liquidity in which financing dried up overnight in late 2007.  Now that financing is back in the market we are seeing the market correct.  It won't be long before we reach the highs of 2006! Who would have thought prices would recover so quickly? And interest rates are steadily rising!